Date: 07 Mar 2000
Time: 07:43:53
Remote Name: 156.29.145.175
03/06/2000 Journal of Commerce Tue Mar 7 00:52:26 2000
EDITORIAL Don't look for swift economic change in Iran MICHAEL BARRON Michael Barron is a freelance analyst and corporate consultant specializing in the politics and economics of the Middle East and North Africa. He is based in Cardiff, Wales. This article was distributed by Bridge News.
03/06/2000 Journal of Commerce 5 Page 7 (Copyright 2000)
The victory of reformist candidates in Iran 's parliamentary elections marks a further step in the country's political development. But Western investors looking for rapid changes in Iran 's attitude to foreign economic participation will be disappointed.
Reformist candidates in the February elections won 170 seats in the 290-seat Majlis (parliament).
The results gave reformists an absolute majority even before a second round of voting this month to decide 65 seats where no candidate gained an outright victory.
(In Tehran, where reformists won 29 of 30 seats, a recount has been ordered, but it is not expected to result in a major change.)
In comparison, the conservatives, who controlled the last Majlis, gained 35 seats, while independents gained 37 seats. A further five seats are reserved for religious minorities such as Christians and Jews.Although reformists now control the Majlis and are likely to strengthen their grip after the second round, they will not be able to push ahead with their reforming agenda. The main reason for this is that such an agenda does not exist.
The reformists fought the election as a coalition, named in honor of Mohammad Khatami's 1997 presidential election victory. This coalition agrees only on the broadest of aims, such as the need for economic reform, strengthening the rule of law and the desire for better relations with the West.The various factions of the coalition will argue strongly over the precise measures needed to implement these aims. Khatami himself has never articulated a detailed economic policy.
Now that President Khatami and his coalition have defeated the conservatives and won control of the Majlis, their supporters -- mainly young, urban Iranians -- will expect results.
Khatami has retained the popularity of this constituency by standing up to the conservatives and their hard-line implementation of Islamic codes.
The relaxation of social restrictions forms only part of the demands of young Iranians, who form the majority of the population. They want real economic opportunities.
The failure to deliver economic improvements could create a backlash against Khatami and endanger his re-election in 2001. It would also endanger the election of reformist candidates in subsequent elections.
Even when the reformists do formulate coherent and detailed policies, there is still no guarantee that they will be able to get them enacted. Political parties are an innovation in Iranian politics and party discipline remains weak. Battles will have to be fought to convince a majority of Majlis deputies to ensure each measure is passed, especially controversial economic reforms.Even after that process is completed, the Guardian Council, a quasi-upper chamber, will have to ratify the reforms.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appoints this body and it remains under conservative control. It attempted to frustrate the efforts of prospective reformist candidates to gain nomination for the recent election. The bruising battles between reformists and conservatives will continue in the forthcoming parliamentary sessions.
Despite the difficulties that lie ahead for the reformists, this round of parliamentary elections has great significance for the Iranian political system. It marks the most free and fair election held since the 1979 revolution.
Although there have been accusations of ballot-rigging, especially in the case of former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani's candidacy in the Tehran district, these have not detracted from the legitimacy of the outcome.
All sides have, in general, accepted the results. Iran has shown the international community that it can hold a credible election and, in doing so, has scored an important propaganda victory. This will serve to weaken international opposition to the Iranian government and help its integration into the international community.
This outbreak of democracy in Iran also poses challenges for Iran 's opponents, especially the U.S. government.Western governments have to applaud moves toward democracy, but in Iran 's case they must not applaud too loudly. Overt foreign -- especially Western -- support for the Khatami government will undermine its credibility at home.
The reformists' position, although stronger than before the elections, remains fragile.
Discreetly encouraging their companies to engage with Iran and take advantage of opportunities is one method that Western governments can and do use to support the Iranian government.
Such encouragement is less politically controversial when Iran is seen to be enacting reforms and moving closer to democratic forms of government.
The Journal of Commerce welcomes opinion articles of up to 750 words on issues of public policy. They may be e-mailed, without attachments, to gstorey@mail.joc.com; or mailed to Gregory D. Storey, Editorial Director, The Journal of Commerce, Two World Trade Center, 27th Floor, New York, N.Y. 10048.